Sports prediction markets

Games, championships and season outcomes.

What sports prediction markets are

Sports prediction markets let you trade on games, titles and season outcomes. On Kalshi, each contract is worth $1 if you are right ^[1].

Kalshi is an exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market ^[2]. Its Sports category includes the Super Bowl ^[3] and the UEFA Champions League ^[4].

What does a sports contract pay?

Each contract pays $1 if your side is right. The price you pay reflects how likely traders think the outcome is.

In Kalshi's own example, a 70% chance means Yes costs 70 cents and No costs 30 cents ^[5].

How these markets settle

Kalshi settles each sports market from the sources named in that market's rules ^[6]. For US league titles such as the Super Bowl, the rules name the governing league, the Associated Press, ESPN, The Wall Street Journal and Fox Sports ^[7].

Who decides the result of a Kalshi sports market?

Kalshi's markets team decides, using the official result reported by the source agencies listed in the contract, such as the governing league or ESPN.

A market settles when the official outcome is confirmed and Kalshi's markets team finalizes it ^[8].

What happens if a title game is postponed?

The market stays open. For titles like the Super Bowl, it resolves when the winner is reported or two years after the original date.

Whichever comes first ends the wait. The same limit applies if play is suspended ^[7].

How long does settlement take?

Most Kalshi markets settle within a few hours of the outcome. Some take longer when the source agency is slow to publish final results.

Kalshi says it may wait on official league statistics ^[8]. Determination can take from one hour to more than twelve hours ^[9].

Which venues list them

On this board, sports markets come from Kalshi only, ranked by traded volume. Each price is the Yes ask, the lowest price a seller will accept ^[10]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi data.

Why are sports markets missing from the price-gap board?

Each venue settles a sports question under its own rules. Two venues' rules can differ, so pairing their markets as a hedge carries settlement risk.

Each Kalshi market runs under its own rules and verification source ^[6]. Listing one venue's price carries no settlement risk. Pairing two venues' sports markets does, so Predictmoni keeps sports off its price-gap board.

What moves the price

Kalshi says its prices change with trader confidence and public information ^[11].

Is the price a forecast?

No. Kalshi says its price graphs show what traders believe together, not fixed probabilities. The price is what one venue charges today.

Kalshi calls its prices consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities ^[11].

Sources (11)

A Kalshi contract is worth $1 if you are right. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists a Super Bowl series in its Sports category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXSB (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists a UEFA Champions League series in its Sports category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXUCL (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi ties the Yes price to the market's view of the odds; at 70% Yes costs 70 cents and No 30 cents. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
Each Kalshi market has its own rules, including the outcome verification source. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823822-market-rules (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi title contracts (NFL, NHL, NBA and NCAA titles only) settle on the first official final result; source agencies are the governing league, AP, ESPN, WSJ and Fox Sports; postponed or suspended events resolve on the sooner of the winner being reported or two years; post-expiration revisions are not counted. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/TITLE.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi markets settle when the official outcome is confirmed by the markets team; most within a few hours (often about 3); delays come from source agencies such as official league statistics. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823821-market-faqs (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi determination can take from one hour to more than twelve hours after market close. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823826-market-outcomes (checked 2026-09-25)
An ask is the minimum price a member is willing to sell a contract for. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823828-the-orderbook (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi price graphs change with trader confidence and public information; they are consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823830-price-graph (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

Related: prediction market platforms

LIVE413 markets across 60 series

Listed here, and deliberately absent from the price-gaps board. Showing what a venue charges carries no settlement risk; PAIRING two sports markets across venues carries the February 2026 Super Bowl case, where near-identical questions settled in opposite directions and both legs of a hedge lost.

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