Crypto prediction markets

What crypto prediction markets are

Crypto prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on coin prices. Each contract is worth $1 if you are right ^[2]. A typical Kalshi question asks whether bitcoin will be above a set price at a set time ^[3].

The board below lists Kalshi markets on bitcoin, ether, solana, XRP and dogecoin.

What does a crypto market price mean?

The price is the market's estimate of the chance that yes wins. A yes contract trading at 30 cents implies about a 30% chance.

Kalshi says its contract prices track how likely traders think an event is ^[1]. In Kalshi's own example, a 70-cent yes price pairs with a 30-cent no price ^[1].

How these markets settle

Kalshi's crypto markets settle on price indexes run by CF Benchmarks ^[5]. A winning bitcoin contract pays $1.00 ^[3]. Payment comes no later than the day after expiration, unless Kalshi is reviewing the outcome ^[3].

What price settles a Kalshi bitcoin market?

Kalshi settles bitcoin markets on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, averaged over the 60 seconds before the market's stated time.

Kalshi's bitcoin contract rules name CF Benchmarks as the source agency ^[3]. The rules use a simple average of the index for the minute before the stated time ^[3]. If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No ^[3].

Do ether and solana markets settle the same way?

Yes. Kalshi settles all its crypto markets by averaging 60 seconds of the matching CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index for that coin.

Kalshi's help center says all crypto market contracts settle this way ^[5]. The ether series names the CF Benchmarks ETHUSD Real-Time Index as its source ^[6].

Which venues list them

The crypto board on this page reads Kalshi. Every series it shows is a Kalshi series. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market ^[7]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi.

What moves the price

A crypto contract's payout depends on one number: the index value at the stated time ^[3].

What makes a crypto contract's price change?

The price moves when traders change their view of the odds. For crypto, the payout depends only on the index price versus the strike.

Kalshi says the yes price rises as traders see a yes outcome as more likely ^[1]. A bitcoin contract pays only if the index is above, below or between the stated prices at the stated time ^[3].

Why can one exchange's bitcoin price differ from the settlement price?

The contract follows the CF Benchmarks index. That index blends order data from several major exchanges, so one exchange's price can differ from it.

CF Benchmarks says the BRTI combines order data from the bitcoin-dollar markets of major exchanges ^[8]. It publishes a new value every 200 milliseconds ^[8]. CF Benchmarks also states that the BRTI is the settlement input for Kalshi's event contracts ^[4].