Companies prediction markets

Earnings, launches, acquisitions and leadership.

What companies prediction markets are

Companies prediction markets let you trade on business events, such as reported numbers and leadership changes. On Kalshi, each contract is worth $1 if you are right ^[1].

Kalshi is an exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a Designated Contract Market ^[2]. Its Companies category includes Netflix subscriber counts ^[3], Wendy's annual metrics ^[4] and departures from Meta ^[5].

What does a companies contract pay?

Each contract pays $1 if your side is right. The price you pay reflects how likely traders think the outcome is.

In Kalshi's own example, a 70% chance means Yes costs 70 cents and No costs 30 cents ^[6].

How these markets settle

Every Kalshi market has its own rules, and those rules name the source that verifies the outcome ^[7]. For reported numbers, the company's own report is the main source ^[8].

Which source settles a reported-number market?

The company's own report. Kalshi's annual KPI contracts settle on the figure the company officially reports in its earnings release, call, presentation or filings.

The named sources also include the company's investor relations website, federal financial regulators, and outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg News ^[8].

How does a Netflix subscriber market settle?

A Netflix subscriber market settles on the change in global paid memberships Netflix reports for the quarter. Netflix is the only named source agency.

The contract names Netflix as its source agency ^[9].

How does a leadership-change market settle?

On an official announcement by the company or the person, or a report from a named news outlet, that the person left before the date.

Named sources include SEC filings and outlets such as Reuters ^[10]. If the company stops existing as a legal entity before the date, the market resolves Yes ^[10].

Which venues list them

On this board, companies markets come from Kalshi only, ranked by traded volume. Each price is the Yes ask, the lowest price a seller will accept ^[11]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi data.

What moves the price

Kalshi says its prices change with trader confidence and public information ^[12].

What moves a reported-number market?

New public information about the company can move the price. Kalshi's Netflix subscriber markets stop trading at the first 10:00 AM ET after release.

Trading ends at the first 10:00 AM ET after Netflix releases the number, or on a set date if that comes sooner ^[9].

Is the price a forecast?

No. Kalshi says its price graphs show what traders believe together, not fixed probabilities. The price is what one venue charges today.

Kalshi calls its prices consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities ^[12].

Sources (12)

A Kalshi contract is worth $1 if you are right. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists a Netflix subscribers series in its Companies category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/NETFLIXSUBS (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists a Wendy's Annual KPI series in its Companies category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXWENA (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi lists a 'Who will leave Meta' series in its Companies category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXLEAVEMETA (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi ties the Yes price to the market's view of the odds; at 70% Yes costs 70 cents and No 30 cents. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
Each Kalshi market has its own rules, including the outcome verification source. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823822-market-rules (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi annual KPI contracts settle on the metric as officially reported by the company in its earnings release, call, investor presentation or government filings; source agencies include the company, its IR site, federal financial regulators, Reuters, Bloomberg News; post-expiration revisions not counted. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/ANNUALKPI.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi Netflix subscriber contracts settle on the change in global paid memberships reported by Netflix (sole source agency); last trading is the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET after release or a set date. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/NFLXSUBS.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi leave-company contracts settle on an official announcement or confirmation by the company, the person, or authoritative news sources; sources include SEC filings, Reuters, WSJ; resolves Yes if the company ceases to exist. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/LEAVECOMPANY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
An ask is the minimum price a member is willing to sell a contract for. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823828-the-orderbook (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi price graphs change with trader confidence and public information; they are consensus beliefs, not absolute probabilities. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823830-price-graph (checked 2026-09-25)