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Politics prediction markets

Legislation, appointments, and what officials will say and do.

What politics prediction markets are

Politics prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on what officials and governments do. Kalshi lists them alongside legal outcomes and elections [1].

What does a politics prediction market ask?

A politics prediction market asks whether a political event happens by a date, such as a meeting between two people or a Supreme Court confirmation.

Source: [2][3].

Reading a politics market's price

A Yes price in cents reads as the chance traders give the event. A Yes at 70 cents means about a 70% chance [4].

How these markets settle

Kalshi's Trump meeting series lists the sources that can confirm a meeting [6].

What settles a Kalshi politics market?

Named sources settle it. Kalshi's Trump meeting markets name sources including Reuters, the Associated Press, the New York Times and the White House.

Source: [6][7][8].

What counts as a meeting?

Both people must be present and interact. At least one named source must confirm it through an official statement, press release or credible media report.

Source: [5][9].

What settles legislation and confirmation markets?

Kalshi names the Library of Congress, through Congress.gov, as the source. Its debt ceiling market asks whether a bill abolishing the ceiling becomes law.

Source: [10][11][12].

Which venues list them

Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market [13]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi prices.

Which venue does the politics board read?

Predictmoni's politics board reads Kalshi only. It lists the series in Kalshi's Politics category with the most traded volume. Elections have their own board.

Source: [14].

What moves the price

Kalshi says a Yes price rises as traders see Yes as more likely, and falls as they see it as less likely [15].

What moves a politics price?

Traders reprice when news changes how likely the named event looks. Only reports from the sources in the rules can settle the market.

Source: [15][5].

Can insiders trade politics markets?

Kalshi's rules forbid it. Anyone holding material non-public information about the event, or working for a named source agency, may not trade the contract.

Source: [16].

Sources (16)
  1. Kalshi lists markets on elections, legal and political outcomes. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
  2. A Kalshi market asks whether Donald Trump meets a named person in person before Jan 1, 2027. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXTRUMPMEETING-… (checked 2026-09-25)
  3. A Kalshi market asks whether the Senate confirms a new Supreme Court justice by Jan 20, 2029. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXSCOTUSN-29JAN20 (checked 2026-09-25)
  4. On Kalshi a 70% chance of Yes corresponds to a Yes price of 70 cents; prices rise as a Yes outcome looks more likely. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  5. A qualifying meeting needs both persons present and interacting, confirmed by at least one Source Agency. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXTRUMPMEETING-… (checked 2026-09-25)
  6. Kalshi's Trump meeting series lists 17 settlement sources that can confirm a meeting, including Reuters, the Associated Press, the New York Times and The White House. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXTRUMPMEETING (checked 2026-09-25)
  7. The source list includes the Associated Press. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXTRUMPMEETING (checked 2026-09-25)
  8. The source list includes The White House website. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXTRUMPMEETING (checked 2026-09-25)
  9. Being in the same place without interaction is not a meeting. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXTRUMPMEETING-… (checked 2026-09-25)
  10. A Kalshi market asks whether a bill abolishing the debt ceiling becomes law. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXDCEILEND-26-27 (checked 2026-09-25)
  11. The debt ceiling series settles on the Library of Congress (congress.gov). api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXDCEILEND (checked 2026-09-25)
  12. The Supreme Court confirmation series settles on the Library of Congress (congress.gov). api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXSCOTUSN (checked 2026-09-25)
  13. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
  14. Predictmoni's politics board is enumerated from Kalshi's Politics series and ranked by volume. predictmoni.com/prediction-markets/politics (checked 2026-09-25)
  15. A Yes price rises as the perceived likelihood of Yes rises. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  16. Source-agency employees and holders of material non-public information may not trade the contract. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXTRUMPMEETING (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

See also: election prediction markets, AI prediction markets, economic prediction markets

Related: prediction market platforms

LIVE9 markets across 60 series 

Enumerated from Kalshi’s 2,270 Politics series and ranked by volume rather than hand-picked, so the board follows the venue rather than a list that goes stale.

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