Elections prediction markets
Races, nominations and margins, priced as probabilities.
What elections prediction markets are
Elections prediction markets are contracts on who wins a race or which party takes a seat. This board is built from Kalshi's Elections category. Alaska governor is one example [10].
What does an elections contract pay?
Each contract pays $1.00 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not. Prices trade between 1 cent and 99 cents.
Kalshi's rules set the settlement value at $1.00 [5]. Kalshi lists these contracts at prices from $0.01 to $0.99 [6]. Kalshi is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market [6].
Reading a price of 30 cents
A Yes price of 30 cents implies about a 30% chance, according to Kalshi. It is the venue's price, not a forecast.
Kalshi says a Yes price of p cents implies a market-implied probability of about p% [7].
How these markets settle
Each race settles on a source named in its contract rules. The source depends on the type of race.
How does a governor's race settle?
Kalshi uses the official election results produced by the state. The contract pays holders of the winning candidate's Yes side.
Kalshi's governor rules name the state's official results as the deciding source [1].
How does a Senate race settle?
A Senate seat contract settles on the party of the first winner sworn into the Senate. The source is the United States Congress.
The rule looks at the first candidate who presents a certificate of election and is sworn in for the new term [3]. If that person switches party before taking the seat, the contract uses their party on election day [4].
Can a race settle before official results?
Yes. A US race can settle early when at least four of eight named news desks call a winner and none disagree.
Kalshi's rules name the eight desks: The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News and ABC News [2].
Which venues list them
Every market on this board comes from Kalshi. For its fees and quirks, see our notes on prediction market platforms.
Kalshi only on this board
The elections board is built from Kalshi's own Elections category. Other venues are not read here, so their prices do not appear.
What moves the price
What makes an elections price change?
New information moves it. Kalshi names breaking news and fresh polls as things that change what a contract is worth.
Kalshi lists new economic data, breaking news stories and fresh polls as information that changes a contract's fair value [8]. When more traders expect Yes, the Yes price rises and the No price falls [9].
Sources (10)
- Kalshi governor contracts settle on the official election results produced by the state. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
- A US race can resolve early when four of eight named media desks call it and none contradicts; the eight desks. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
- Kalshi Senate seat contracts settle on the party of the first certified winner sworn in; the source agency is the US Congress. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/SENATEPARTY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
- A party switch after election day does not change the result. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/SENATEPARTY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
- Kalshi election contracts settle at $1.00. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
- Kalshi is a CFTC-registered designated contract market; contracts list between $0.01 and $0.99. assets.kalshi.com/regulatory/product-certifications/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
- A Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
- New economic data, breaking news and fresh polls change a contract's fair value. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
- When the perceived likelihood of Yes rises, the Yes price rises and the No price falls. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
- Kalshi files governor races under its Elections category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXGOVAK (checked 2026-09-25)
More on: prediction market arbitrage
See also: economic prediction markets, political prediction markets, financial prediction markets
Related: prediction market platforms
From Kalshi’s 1,650 Elections series. Prices here are what one venue charges — they are not a forecast, and two venues wording one race identically can still settle it in opposite directions.
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?
- Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?82¢28,493 vol
- Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?7¢5,585 vol
- Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?4¢1,462 vol
Will OneBC finish 3rd in the 2026 British Columbia general elect
- Will OneBC finish 3rd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?2¢8,667 vol
- Will BC NDP finish 3rd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?4¢7,332 vol
- Will BC Conservatives finish 3rd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?1¢6,550 vol
- Will BC Greens finish 3rd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?99¢6,454 vol
- Will CentreBC finish 3rd in the 2026 British Columbia general election?2¢6,296 vol
Will Labour majority form the next government in the United King
- Will Labour majority form the next government in the United Kingdom?15¢1,397 vol
- Will Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?10¢311 vol
- Will Conservative minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?6¢243 vol
- Will Labour minority form the next government in the United Kingdom?9¢191 vol
- Will Labour minority + SNP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?8¢171 vol
- Will Labour minority + Green support form the next government in the United Kingdom?7¢166 vol
- Will Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support form the next government in the United Kingdom?9¢144 vol
- Will Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support form the next government in the United Kingdom?8¢139 vol
- Will Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?9¢139 vol
- Will Reform UK minority + DUP support form the next government in the United Kingdom?6¢112 vol
- Will Reform UK and Conservative coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?7¢79 vol
- Will Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition form the next government in the United Kingdom?5¢61 vol
Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presiden
- Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?13¢2,976 vol
Will Rocky Adkins be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Kent
- Will Rocky Adkins be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Kentucky?70¢0 vol
- Will Jacqueline Coleman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Kentucky?40¢0 vol
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President of the United S
- Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?75¢0 vol
- Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President of the United States before Jul 1, 2027?66¢0 vol
- Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President of the United States before Feb 1, 2027?18¢0 vol
- Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President of the United States before Apr 1, 2027?57¢0 vol
- Will Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President of the United States before Dec 1, 2026?8¢0 vol